325MW power outage on the cards

ISLAMABAD - Acting on Prime Minister’s orders to provide additional natural gas to fertilizer sector, Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) diverted 60 mmcfd gas from power sector to fertilizer units that decreased power generation by 325 MW. An official source said SNGPL has cut gas supplies to three gas based power plants, which can now operate only on other alternate fuel diesel that would enhance their generated power by at least by Rs10 per unit. He said the adjustment of the power price increase will be manageable during current year, but would be unmanageable next month when hydel power generation declines significantly due to closure of canals for annual clean up. Government has been forced to divert additional gas supplies to fertiliser sector, as country is faced with a urea shortfall of 1.2 million tonnes during the current Rabi season. Domestic prices of urea have already more than doubled from Rs830 per bag to Rs1,770 per bag during the last one year. 
Pakistan faced an unprecedented gas supply shortage even during summer season which resulted in low urea production. Government is importing 700,000 tonnes of urea to bridge the gas in demand and supply.
According to Petroleum Ministry, natural gas shortfall against committed supplies would be around 529 mmcfd during November which will increase up to 911 mmcfd in December; peaking at 1.1 and 1.4 mmcfd in January and February, respectively, before easing down to 726 mmcfd in March. Economic Coordination Committee of cabinet had earlier approved gas load management plan for November deciding supply of gas to CNG and industrial sectors for 3 days every week. It decided to provide 76 mmcfd gas to power sector and 90 mmcfd to the fertiliser sector on rotation basis. After PM’s directives, supply to fertiliser sector had been increased to 150 mmcfd as compared to their requirements of 236 mmcfd. Shortage of urea and its high prices forced PM to rescind the decision of ECC, as insufficient urea was likely to affect yield of wheat crop. Import of urea is expected to start from third week of November and the process will be completed by middle of December. Wheat sowing starts from early November and continues till December end, but the late sowing results in suppressing of yield. Petroleum Minister, Dr Asim Hussain had earlier said about 200 mmcfd additional gas is expected to be injected into transmission system, out of which 100 mmcfd is expected from Kunnar Pasaki Deep in December while 30 mmcfd each from Sui, Qadirpur and Kandanwari are expected in the first quarter next year. Pakistan has annual urea demand of 6.5 million tones, which could be easily full filled by local fertiliser industry having the capacity to produce 6.9 million tonnes per annum, provided they get feedstock gas supplies. Annual production for current year is estimated to be 5 million tonnes, with an estimated urea shortage of 1.3 million. Government has already imported 500,000 tonnes of urea during the 

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